In its June report, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its forecast for wheat production in the 2026/2027 season for major exporting countries by 0.2 million tonnes, to 394.7 million tonnes. Russia's crop forecast was raised to 89 million tonnes (up 1.1 million tonnes from May), and Ukraine's to 26.1 million tonnes (also up 1.1 million tonnes). Forecasts were lowered for the US by 0.5 million tonnes to 42 million tonnes, and for Australia by 2 million tonnes to 27.7 million tonnes. For Kazakhstan, the IGC left its 2026/2027 production forecast unchanged at 15.3 million tonnes (compared to 19.3 million tonnes in 2025).
Exports are expected to reach 9.1 million tonnes. Forecasts for Argentina (20.5 million tonnes), Canada (36.6 million tonnes), and the European Union (137.5 million tonnes) were also unchanged. The IGC noted that the development of El Niño in the second half of the year could impact yields in individual countries, though this effect has not yet been determined. The report also cited concerns regarding fertilizer availability, noting that a recent decline in input prices provides some relief.